Skill -  Luck - Statistical Probabilities - Odds, - Human Nature - Averages - & Poker

Now that’s a title!

I decided to write on this topic because of  the difference in opinion I have had with my good friend and Tunica local poker player: “Horseman Dale”.

Dale and I argue every time we discuss poker. Dale professes the absolute importance of the bell curve as it applies to poker.  He sites statistics and averages, and confidently proclaims that he has played poker exactly the same way regardless of whether he’s winning or losing for years.  Dale has also expressed his belief that there is virtually no extra value to experience…. He has played poker for years, so how could someone else who has also played for years have any kind of advantage?  Dale attributes winning or losing poker to one thing: Luck, either good or bad.  He has told me that luck is at least 75% of poker while skill level is 25%.

Although I think Dale is a good player, I couldn’t disagree with him more.

I believe that statistical probablities, averages, odds and luck are all important elements of poker, but ultimately, except for luck, are simply tools. In my book, luck eventually equals out, but skill doesn’t!

In Dale’s defense, I have been told by a very skilled professional poker player; “When is doubt, let the math decide your actions”.  I believe :"Math": would be “pot odds”  and a statistical assessment of the value of your hand and what percentage of the time, it will win.

Here is where Dale and I truly differ in our approach to poker. I place a much higher value on my ability to read my opponents and determine the strength or weakness of their hands. If I believe that I am beat… I can fold ANY HAND at any time! Dale might suspect that he is beat, but if the stats and pot odds lean toward playing the hand… He more often than not, will. The other Pro, I sited above appears to support this approach with one major caveat that seems to escape my friend Dale: That caveat is “When in Doubt”.  That narrows things down a lot for me. I seldom play a hand of poker and doubt that I can win…. I am willing to trust my reads on my opponents.


I also make a conscious effort to learn something new every single time I play in a poker tournament. It might not be a big thing, but I generally accomplish this to some degree.

For instance… There was a really hot girl showing a ton of cleavage in the four seat today. She was truly beautiful and very aware of the distraction she presented to us, her male opponents. The truth is I am completely convinced that Dale would have noticed her too! I am not so certain that he would have noticed that while at rest in a seated position, and not actively involved in a hand, her respiratory rate was a constant 16 cycles per minute.
When she played a strong hand, her respiratory rate increased dramatically and each breath became very shallow.  I believe Dale would have been watching the cleavage the same as I was…but for different reasons… That is the strength of a skilled poker player… and getting to look at great cleavage… well Dale, that is just good luck!